Demand and Supply of Care Over the Life Course

We project the effects of changes in fertility and life expectancy rates on both the receipt and provision of care in the UK. We investigate the impact on the level and cost of care, as well as its share of total GDP. SimPaths, an open-source dynamic microsimulation model, is employed to design different scenarios over almost a half-century period. This framework projects life histories over time, developing detailed representations of career paths, family and intergenerational relationships, health, and financial circumstances. Our projections show a massive surge in care demand, primarily driven by extensive margins and particularly pronounced under a high life-expectancy assumption. The increasing care needs translate into higher expenses for formal social care, a larger share of the caregiver population, and a soaring use of informal care. Across all scenarios, partnership functions as an essential informal safety net. Compared to singles, partnered individuals not only report lower baseline care needs and formal care receipt, but they also absorb a substantially larger share of informal care provision.